Category: General

The likely direction of interest rates in 2026

As we look ahead to 2026, there is growing speculation about how the Bank of England will manage interest rates during what many economists believe will be a period of calmer inflation, steadier wage growth and a more predictable economic backdrop. After several years shaped by sharp price rises, supply chain shocks and policy responses that required rapid increases to the Bank Rate, the outlook for the coming year appears more settled and this is creating a sense that borrowing costs may edge downwards rather than upwards.

The current Bank Rate stands at around four per cent following a series of cuts through 2024 and 2025 as inflation eased gradually. Policymakers have indicated that they remain alert to any resurgence in inflationary pressure, yet they also recognise that the period of high inflation is now behind us. If this trend continues and inflation drifts closer to the Bank’s long term target, it will give the Monetary Policy Committee more room to make modest reductions during 2026. Many forecasters expect something in the region of a quarter to half a percentage point of cuts during the year, although the timing will depend heavily on the data released each quarter.

For households and businesses, this would create a slightly more comfortable lending environment. Mortgage borrowers on variable deals may feel some relief as repayments fall a little and businesses that rely on flexible credit facilities could find that their financing costs ease. Fixed mortgage rates may also become more attractive if lenders anticipate further gradual reductions. However, the broader economic impact is unlikely to be dramatic, since the Bank is not expected to deliver large or rapid cuts. The emphasis is more likely to remain on steady adjustments that avoid disrupting confidence or encouraging excessive borrowing.

It is worth noting that a full return to the ultra-low interest rate environment seen before the pandemic is not expected. Structural changes in the UK economy, global supply conditions and the government’s fiscal position all point towards a future in which interest rates remain higher than the levels seen in the decade prior to 2020. Even so, a move towards slightly lower borrowing costs in 2026 would be consistent with a maturing recovery and a gradual balancing of supply and demand across the economy.

Overall, the most probable outcome for 2026 is a measured reduction in interest rates that supports economic stability without risking a renewed surge in inflation.

Increase in the London congestion charge from January 2026

The daily charge for driving within the London Congestion Charge zone will rise from £15 to £18 from 2 January 2026. This is the first increase in several years and forms part of Transport for London’s wider plan to manage traffic levels, improve air quality and support sustainable travel across the capital.

Transport for London has said that without an updated charge the central zone is likely to experience a noticeable increase in vehicle volumes during the next year. The higher charge is intended to discourage unnecessary journeys, smooth traffic flow and reduce delays that affect both businesses and individuals.

A significant change for drivers of electric vehicles is also being introduced. The current 100% discount for electric cars will end on 25 December 2025. From January 2026 electric cars registered for Auto Pay will move to a reduced rate that reflects a new tiered discount structure. Electric vans, heavy goods vehicles and quadricycles will also have revised discounted rates. This marks a shift away from the long-standing full exemption that has been used to encourage uptake of electric vehicles.

Residents who live within the congestion charging zone will continue to receive a 90% discount, although new applicants from March 2027 will only qualify for this reduction if they drive an electric vehicle. Existing residents with the discount will keep their entitlement regardless of vehicle type.

For business owners, delivery companies and anyone regularly travelling into central London, these changes will require some forward planning. Vehicle choice, travel habits and the cost of regular visits to the zone may all be affected. It may be useful to review travel arrangements ahead of the January 2026 increase in order to understand the cost impact on budgets and operations.

Check when you can expect a reply from HMRC

HMRC offers a helpful online tool that allows agents and taxpayers to check when they can expect a response to a query or request that they have made. The online tool is updated weekly with the latest information.

The full list of taxes the tool can currently be used for are as follows:

• Child Benefit
• Corporation Tax
• Construction Industry Scheme (CIS)
• Employers’ PAYE
• Income Tax
• National Insurance
• Self-assessment
• Tax credits
• VAT

Agents can also check how long it will take HMRC to:

• register you as an agent to use HMRC online services;
• process an application for authority to act on behalf of a client; and
• amend your agent details.

The online tool can be accessed at the following address, and you do not have to be logged in to receive an answer: https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/guidance/Check-when-you-can-expect-a-reply-from-HMRC/start/are-you-an-agent.

Set up your tax app with HMRC

The free HMRC tax app now provides quick access to tax codes, income history, self-assessment details, National Insurance records and even payment options, all from your phone.

HMRC’s free tax app is available to download from the App Store for iOS and from the Google Play Store for Android. The latest version of the app includes some updated functionality.

To set up the tax app for the first time, open the app and enter your Government Gateway user ID and password. If you do not have a user ID, you can create one within the app. After signing in, you can access the app easily using a 6-digit PIN, fingerprint or facial recognition.

The app can be used to see your:

• tax code and National Insurance number
• income and benefits
• employment and income history in the previous 5 years
• Unique Taxpayer Reference (UTR) for self-assessment
• self-assessment tax you owe
• your Child Benefit
• your State Pension forecast
• gaps in National Insurance contributions

The app can also be used to complete a number of tasks that usually require the user to be logged on to a computer. This includes to:

• get an estimate of the tax you need to pay
• make a self-assessment payment
• make a Simple Assessment payment
• set a reminder to make a self-assessment payment
• access your Help to Save account
• using HMRC’s tax calculator to work out your take home pay after Income Tax and National Insurance deductions
• track forms and letters you have sent to HMRC
• claim a refund if you have paid too much tax
• ask HMRC’s digital assistant for help and information
• update your name and / or postal address
• save your National Insurance number to your digital wallet
• check if you can make a payment for gaps in your National Insurance contributions
• choose to be contacted by HMRC electronically, instead of by letter.

Tell HMRC about unpaid tax on cryptoassets

Where cryptoasset tokens (also known as cryptocurrency) are held personally, this investment is usually undertaken in the hope of making a capital appreciation in its value or to make particular purchases. 

HMRC is clear that these holdings will usually be subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) if there is a gain when disposing of these assets by: 

• selling tokens
• exchanging tokens for a different type of cryptoasset
• using tokens to pay for goods or services
• giving away tokens to another person (unless it is a gift to your spouse, civil partner or charity)

If you have unpaid tax on cryptoasset gains, there is a specific voluntary disclosure service that can be used. This service can be used for exchange tokens (such as bitcoin), NFTs (non-fungible tokens) and utility tokens.

Before making a voluntary disclosure, you will need to: 

• collect information about the cryptoassets you owe tax on; 
• work out how many years you need to declare unpaid tax for; 
• work out the CGT and Income Tax you owe; and 
• work out any interest you owe. 
• work out any penalties you will be liable for 

The number of years you must disclose unpaid tax depends on why it was not paid correctly. If you took reasonable care but still underpaid, you must disclose and pay for the last four years. If you did not take care, you must disclose for six years. However, if you deliberately failed to pay or knowingly gave incorrect information, you must disclose and pay for up to 20 years of unpaid tax.

Your disclosure must include all unpaid tax, interest and penalties. You can use HMRC’s calculators to work out the correct interest and penalty amounts. Once you submit your disclosure, HMRC will usually issue a payment reference number within 15 working days, and you must pay the full amount within 30 days of submitting a disclosure.

After reviewing your disclosure, HMRC will either send you a letter confirming acceptance of your offer or contact you if it cannot be accepted. If HMRC finds that you knowingly provided false or incorrect information, they may reopen your tax affairs and can impose higher penalties.

Check if you can cash in a Child Trust Fund

HMRC has issued a press release urging 18-23 year olds who have yet to claim their Child Trust Fund (CTF) cash to do so as soon as possible. According to HMRC, over 758,000 young adults in this age group have unclaimed funds, with the average savings pot estimated to be around £2,240.

Anyone who turned 18 on or after 1 September 2020 could have unclaimed money in a dormant CTF. Parents of children aged 18-23 should also check if their children have claimed the funds to which they are entitled.

Children born between 1 September 2002 and 2 January 2011 were eligible for a CTF account, with the government contributing an initial deposit, typically at least £250. These accounts were set up as long-term savings for newly born children.

HMRC’s Second Permanent Secretary and Deputy Chief Executive, said:

‘If you’re between 18 and 23, you could be sat on a savings payout and not even realise it. Just search ‘find my Child Trust Fund’ on GOV.UK to find your savings account today.’

More than 563,000 young people went online to find their CTF in the 12 months to August 2025. September 2024 was the busiest month when over 71,000 searches were submitted.

Approximately 6.3 million Child Trust Fund (CTF) accounts were created during the scheme's operation. If a parent or guardian was unable to open an account for their child, HMRC stepped in and set up a savings account on the child’s behalf.

Understanding the tax implications of divorce

When a couple is separating or undergoing divorce proceedings, tax issues are often not the first thing on their minds. However, alongside the emotional challenges, it is important to understand the tax implications of divorce can have a significant impact.

Changes to the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rules for divorcing couples took effect on 6 April 2023. These changes extended the period during which spouses and civil partners can make transfers between each other without triggering CGT. The no gain/no loss rule now lasts up to three years after they stop living together. Additionally, if the couple has a formal divorce agreement, there is no time limit for these transfers. Before this change, the no gain/no loss treatment only applied to disposals in the tax year of the separation.

There are also specific rules for people who continue to have a financial interest in their former family home after separating. These rules allow them to claim private residence relief (PRR) when the home is eventually sold, provided certain conditions are met.

During divorce proceedings, it is crucial to reach a fair financial agreement, if possible, as this can help avoid further legal complications. If an agreement cannot be reached, the court may step in to issue a "financial order." Both parties and their advisers should also carefully consider the future of the family home, any family businesses, and the potential Inheritance Tax consequences of the separation or divorce.

Bank deposit protection limits set to rise

The UK’s financial regulator has proposed an increase to the level of savings protection available under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS). If approved, the changes would take effect from 1 December 2025 and will be welcome news for individuals and businesses holding larger balances in UK banks and building societies.

Currently, the FSCS protects deposits of up to £85,000 per person, per institution. For joint accounts, that protection doubles to £170,000. There is also extra cover of up to £1 million for “Temporary High Balances” linked to certain life events, such as receiving proceeds from a house sale, inheritance, or insurance payout. This temporary cover applies for six months.

Under the proposals:

• The standard protection limit would rise from £85,000 to £110,000.
• The Temporary High Balance cover would rise from £1 million to £1.4 million.

The reason for the increase is straightforward: inflation has eroded the real value of the £85,000 cap, which was last set in 2017. Updating the limit to £110,000 would restore much of that lost protection and provide savers with greater confidence that their money is safe, even if their bank were to fail.

For most savers, the current £85,000 ceiling is already sufficient. However, those holding larger deposits, particularly following a major transaction, will welcome the higher limits. The proposal also means businesses holding funds in deposit accounts could benefit from increased protection.

A final decision is expected in November 2025, once the consultation has concluded. If confirmed, financial institutions will update their customer information to reflect the new limits by mid-2026.

Beware scams pretending to be HMRC

Fraudsters are continuing to target taxpayers with scam emails as the deadline for submission of self-assessment returns for the 2024-25 tax year gets ever closer. In the 12 months to 31 July 2025, HMRC received more than 170,000 reports of suspicious contact from the public, of which more than 45,000 related to fake tax refund claims.

A number of these scams purport to tell taxpayers they are due a rebate / refund of tax from HMRC and ask for bank or credit card details in order to send the fake tax refund. The fraudsters use various means to try and scam people including making contact by phone calls, texts or emails. In fact, fraudsters have been known to threaten victims with arrest or imprisonment if a bogus tax bill is not paid immediately.

HMRC’s Chief Security Officer, said:

‘Scammers target individuals when they know Self Assessment customers will be preparing to file their tax returns. We’re urging everyone to stay alert to scam emails and texts offering fake tax refunds.

Taking a moment to pause and check can make all the difference. Report any suspicious activity to us before the fraudsters do any more harm. Search ‘HMRC scams advice’ and refer to the scams guidance on GOV.UK to stay informed and protect yourself.’

If you think you have received a suspicious email claiming to be from HMRC you are asked to forward the details to phishing@hmrc.gov.uk, suspicious texts to 60599 and suspicious calls can be reported on GOV.UK. If you have suffered an actual financial loss you should contact Action Fraud on 0300 123 2040 or use their online fraud reporting tool (or Police Scotland via 101).

Budget date announced

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves confirmed, in a video message, that the next UK Budget will take place on Wednesday, 26 November 2025.

Details of all the Budget announcements will be made on a special section of the GOV.UK website which will be updated following completion of the Chancellor’s speech in November.

HM Treasury is inviting written representations for the Autumn Budget 2025 from individuals, interested groups, MPs and organisations. Submissions should propose evidence-based policy ideas or comment on existing policies, with clear rationale, costs, benefits, and deliverability. The deadline for submissions is 23:59 on Wednesday, 15 October 2025.

The Budget will be published alongside the latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). This forecast will be in addition to that published for the Spring Statement and fulfil the obligation for the OBR to produce at least two forecasts in a financial year, as is required by legislation.

The OBR has executive responsibility for producing the official UK economic and fiscal forecasts, evaluating the government’s performance against its fiscal targets, assessing the sustainability of and risks to the public finances and scrutinising government tax and welfare spending.