Category: General

The likely direction of interest rates in 2026

As we look ahead to 2026, there is growing speculation about how the Bank of England will manage interest rates during what many economists believe will be a period of calmer inflation, steadier wage growth and a more predictable economic backdrop. After several years shaped by sharp price rises, supply chain shocks and policy responses that required rapid increases to the Bank Rate, the outlook for the coming year appears more settled and this is creating a sense that borrowing costs may edge downwards rather than upwards.

The current Bank Rate stands at around four per cent following a series of cuts through 2024 and 2025 as inflation eased gradually. Policymakers have indicated that they remain alert to any resurgence in inflationary pressure, yet they also recognise that the period of high inflation is now behind us. If this trend continues and inflation drifts closer to the Bank’s long term target, it will give the Monetary Policy Committee more room to make modest reductions during 2026. Many forecasters expect something in the region of a quarter to half a percentage point of cuts during the year, although the timing will depend heavily on the data released each quarter.

For households and businesses, this would create a slightly more comfortable lending environment. Mortgage borrowers on variable deals may feel some relief as repayments fall a little and businesses that rely on flexible credit facilities could find that their financing costs ease. Fixed mortgage rates may also become more attractive if lenders anticipate further gradual reductions. However, the broader economic impact is unlikely to be dramatic, since the Bank is not expected to deliver large or rapid cuts. The emphasis is more likely to remain on steady adjustments that avoid disrupting confidence or encouraging excessive borrowing.

It is worth noting that a full return to the ultra-low interest rate environment seen before the pandemic is not expected. Structural changes in the UK economy, global supply conditions and the government’s fiscal position all point towards a future in which interest rates remain higher than the levels seen in the decade prior to 2020. Even so, a move towards slightly lower borrowing costs in 2026 would be consistent with a maturing recovery and a gradual balancing of supply and demand across the economy.

Overall, the most probable outcome for 2026 is a measured reduction in interest rates that supports economic stability without risking a renewed surge in inflation.

Increase in the London congestion charge from January 2026

The daily charge for driving within the London Congestion Charge zone will rise from £15 to £18 from 2 January 2026. This is the first increase in several years and forms part of Transport for London’s wider plan to manage traffic levels, improve air quality and support sustainable travel across the capital.

Transport for London has said that without an updated charge the central zone is likely to experience a noticeable increase in vehicle volumes during the next year. The higher charge is intended to discourage unnecessary journeys, smooth traffic flow and reduce delays that affect both businesses and individuals.

A significant change for drivers of electric vehicles is also being introduced. The current 100% discount for electric cars will end on 25 December 2025. From January 2026 electric cars registered for Auto Pay will move to a reduced rate that reflects a new tiered discount structure. Electric vans, heavy goods vehicles and quadricycles will also have revised discounted rates. This marks a shift away from the long-standing full exemption that has been used to encourage uptake of electric vehicles.

Residents who live within the congestion charging zone will continue to receive a 90% discount, although new applicants from March 2027 will only qualify for this reduction if they drive an electric vehicle. Existing residents with the discount will keep their entitlement regardless of vehicle type.

For business owners, delivery companies and anyone regularly travelling into central London, these changes will require some forward planning. Vehicle choice, travel habits and the cost of regular visits to the zone may all be affected. It may be useful to review travel arrangements ahead of the January 2026 increase in order to understand the cost impact on budgets and operations.

Set up your tax app with HMRC

The free HMRC tax app now provides quick access to tax codes, income history, self-assessment details, National Insurance records and even payment options, all from your phone.

HMRC’s free tax app is available to download from the App Store for iOS and from the Google Play Store for Android. The latest version of the app includes some updated functionality.

To set up the tax app for the first time, open the app and enter your Government Gateway user ID and password. If you do not have a user ID, you can create one within the app. After signing in, you can access the app easily using a 6-digit PIN, fingerprint or facial recognition.

The app can be used to see your:

• tax code and National Insurance number
• income and benefits
• employment and income history in the previous 5 years
• Unique Taxpayer Reference (UTR) for self-assessment
• self-assessment tax you owe
• your Child Benefit
• your State Pension forecast
• gaps in National Insurance contributions

The app can also be used to complete a number of tasks that usually require the user to be logged on to a computer. This includes to:

• get an estimate of the tax you need to pay
• make a self-assessment payment
• make a Simple Assessment payment
• set a reminder to make a self-assessment payment
• access your Help to Save account
• using HMRC’s tax calculator to work out your take home pay after Income Tax and National Insurance deductions
• track forms and letters you have sent to HMRC
• claim a refund if you have paid too much tax
• ask HMRC’s digital assistant for help and information
• update your name and / or postal address
• save your National Insurance number to your digital wallet
• check if you can make a payment for gaps in your National Insurance contributions
• choose to be contacted by HMRC electronically, instead of by letter.

Check when you can expect a reply from HMRC

HMRC offers a helpful online tool that allows agents and taxpayers to check when they can expect a response to a query or request that they have made. The online tool is updated weekly with the latest information.

The full list of taxes the tool can currently be used for are as follows:

• Child Benefit
• Corporation Tax
• Construction Industry Scheme (CIS)
• Employers’ PAYE
• Income Tax
• National Insurance
• Self-assessment
• Tax credits
• VAT

Agents can also check how long it will take HMRC to:

• register you as an agent to use HMRC online services;
• process an application for authority to act on behalf of a client; and
• amend your agent details.

The online tool can be accessed at the following address, and you do not have to be logged in to receive an answer: https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/guidance/Check-when-you-can-expect-a-reply-from-HMRC/start/are-you-an-agent.

Check if you can cash in a Child Trust Fund

HMRC has issued a press release urging 18-23 year olds who have yet to claim their Child Trust Fund (CTF) cash to do so as soon as possible. According to HMRC, over 758,000 young adults in this age group have unclaimed funds, with the average savings pot estimated to be around £2,240.

Anyone who turned 18 on or after 1 September 2020 could have unclaimed money in a dormant CTF. Parents of children aged 18-23 should also check if their children have claimed the funds to which they are entitled.

Children born between 1 September 2002 and 2 January 2011 were eligible for a CTF account, with the government contributing an initial deposit, typically at least £250. These accounts were set up as long-term savings for newly born children.

HMRC’s Second Permanent Secretary and Deputy Chief Executive, said:

‘If you’re between 18 and 23, you could be sat on a savings payout and not even realise it. Just search ‘find my Child Trust Fund’ on GOV.UK to find your savings account today.’

More than 563,000 young people went online to find their CTF in the 12 months to August 2025. September 2024 was the busiest month when over 71,000 searches were submitted.

Approximately 6.3 million Child Trust Fund (CTF) accounts were created during the scheme's operation. If a parent or guardian was unable to open an account for their child, HMRC stepped in and set up a savings account on the child’s behalf.

Bank deposit protection limits set to rise

The UK’s financial regulator has proposed an increase to the level of savings protection available under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS). If approved, the changes would take effect from 1 December 2025 and will be welcome news for individuals and businesses holding larger balances in UK banks and building societies.

Currently, the FSCS protects deposits of up to £85,000 per person, per institution. For joint accounts, that protection doubles to £170,000. There is also extra cover of up to £1 million for “Temporary High Balances” linked to certain life events, such as receiving proceeds from a house sale, inheritance, or insurance payout. This temporary cover applies for six months.

Under the proposals:

• The standard protection limit would rise from £85,000 to £110,000.
• The Temporary High Balance cover would rise from £1 million to £1.4 million.

The reason for the increase is straightforward: inflation has eroded the real value of the £85,000 cap, which was last set in 2017. Updating the limit to £110,000 would restore much of that lost protection and provide savers with greater confidence that their money is safe, even if their bank were to fail.

For most savers, the current £85,000 ceiling is already sufficient. However, those holding larger deposits, particularly following a major transaction, will welcome the higher limits. The proposal also means businesses holding funds in deposit accounts could benefit from increased protection.

A final decision is expected in November 2025, once the consultation has concluded. If confirmed, financial institutions will update their customer information to reflect the new limits by mid-2026.

Beware scams pretending to be HMRC

Fraudsters are continuing to target taxpayers with scam emails as the deadline for submission of self-assessment returns for the 2024-25 tax year gets ever closer. In the 12 months to 31 July 2025, HMRC received more than 170,000 reports of suspicious contact from the public, of which more than 45,000 related to fake tax refund claims.

A number of these scams purport to tell taxpayers they are due a rebate / refund of tax from HMRC and ask for bank or credit card details in order to send the fake tax refund. The fraudsters use various means to try and scam people including making contact by phone calls, texts or emails. In fact, fraudsters have been known to threaten victims with arrest or imprisonment if a bogus tax bill is not paid immediately.

HMRC’s Chief Security Officer, said:

‘Scammers target individuals when they know Self Assessment customers will be preparing to file their tax returns. We’re urging everyone to stay alert to scam emails and texts offering fake tax refunds.

Taking a moment to pause and check can make all the difference. Report any suspicious activity to us before the fraudsters do any more harm. Search ‘HMRC scams advice’ and refer to the scams guidance on GOV.UK to stay informed and protect yourself.’

If you think you have received a suspicious email claiming to be from HMRC you are asked to forward the details to [email protected], suspicious texts to 60599 and suspicious calls can be reported on GOV.UK. If you have suffered an actual financial loss you should contact Action Fraud on 0300 123 2040 or use their online fraud reporting tool (or Police Scotland via 101).

Budget date announced

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves confirmed, in a video message, that the next UK Budget will take place on Wednesday, 26 November 2025.

Details of all the Budget announcements will be made on a special section of the GOV.UK website which will be updated following completion of the Chancellor’s speech in November.

HM Treasury is inviting written representations for the Autumn Budget 2025 from individuals, interested groups, MPs and organisations. Submissions should propose evidence-based policy ideas or comment on existing policies, with clear rationale, costs, benefits, and deliverability. The deadline for submissions is 23:59 on Wednesday, 15 October 2025.

The Budget will be published alongside the latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). This forecast will be in addition to that published for the Spring Statement and fulfil the obligation for the OBR to produce at least two forecasts in a financial year, as is required by legislation.

The OBR has executive responsibility for producing the official UK economic and fiscal forecasts, evaluating the government’s performance against its fiscal targets, assessing the sustainability of and risks to the public finances and scrutinising government tax and welfare spending.

Using the 159 helpline

If a call from your bank feels suspicious, just hang up and dial 159 to be connected safely to your bank’s fraud team.

The 159 helpline was launched in September 2021. The helpline is designed to help consumers quickly and safely reconnect with their bank when they receive a suspicious or unexpected call about a financial matter. 159 now works for over 99% of UK retail bank customers, providing an extra layer of protection against phone scams.

If you receive a call that feels off, hang up and dial 159. This short code cannot be spoofed or imitated, unlike many regular phone numbers. It connects you directly to your bank’s fraud team, helping you verify the legitimacy of any request before acting.

The memorable number, with the digits forming a diagonal on the keypad "159", has already been used over 800,000 times since its launch. It works with most major UK banks, including Bank of Scotland, Barclays, First Direct, Halifax, HSBC, Lloyds, NatWest, Royal Bank of Scotland, Santander, Monzo, Starling and Virgin Money.

There are ongoing plans to expand and enhance the service including a proposal for having Ofcom designate 159 as a mandatory “Type A” number, like 999 or 111.

If you receive a call purporting to be from your bank that is concerning, calling 159 is a fast, secure way to protect yourself and your finances.

Rules to protect effects of debanking

Banks will have to give 90 days’ notice before closing accounts, giving customers more time to respond.

From April 2026, new government rules will strengthen protections for individuals and small businesses at risk of unfair bank account closures. Under the legislation, banks and payment service providers will be required to give at least 90 days’ written notice before closing an account or terminating a payment service, commonly known as debanking. A significant increase from the previous 2-month limit.

Banks will also be required to provide a clear explanation for the closure, allowing customers to challenge the decision including through the Financial Ombudsman Service. These changes are designed to protect customers, particularly small businesses, who have often found their accounts shut down without notice or reason, leaving them unable to operate or seek alternatives.

The new rules form part of the government’s wider Plan for Change, aimed at delivering economic security and supporting growth. The rules will come into force for relevant new contracts agreed from 28 April 2026 onwards and also apply to the termination of basic personal bank accounts.

There are exceptions in cases where closure is necessary to comply with financial crime laws. Existing protections which prohibit a bank from discriminating against a UK consumer based on political opinions or beliefs remain in place.